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Usually, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward formula. It often acts as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct path: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic turnaround wins the award. In practice, it creates an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're actually honoring excellent leadership or simply the greatest upset.

But the latest field is profoundly unique. The list of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division champions fading and recent also-rans improving in unison. Under an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the stone-cold front-runner. But in this chaotic and entertaining year, he's up against multiple other elite candidates.

This is how the hypothetical ballot ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. Should you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.

Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected his young quarterback; he's unlocked him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the chance to showcase his rare ability. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense sit at number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has willingly submitted to the gameplan rather than going rogue. It is an offense built entirely in Johnson's vision: a physical ground attack, a steady helping of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that frees wide receiver receivers all over the field. The QB has thrived. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to conjure magic out of broken plays.

The coach came to Chicago with a specific offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a coach who entered the organization with the immense pressure Johnson did. For consecutive straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme wizard but the type of culture builder that can breathe fresh energy into an organization.

In a normal year, Johnson would be the clear-cut favorite. Yet the current isn't a normal campaign!

The area where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense currently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the team would be two wins behind. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for sustained winning. However he falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, His Team, 12-4

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now sits at fifth in the league in EPA per play.

What's more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which wasn't a certainty following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

The coach walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed their staff with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. From the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

Following an early hot beginning, there was a chance that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason setback had the Jags wobbling once more. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his mobility more.

The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a defining moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has cooled off after that time, slipping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just a single spot ahead of other QBs.

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