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Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.

"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The pair have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What concerns everybody, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and constitutional models.

Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has has something to gain from the opposing arguments."

Request for Wider Dialogue

Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."