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Residents of the Big Apple will find out the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will decide who governs and defends the country's largest city at a time when the former president has threatened to send military troops to the urban center.

Against that backdrop, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democratic figures against one another. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by alleged racial bias and Islamophobia, but it is the political differences between the two main candidates that could have major implications for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the young progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the backing of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the one-time underdog who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a agenda of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by significant margins in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's election to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, Cuomo, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will battle to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has criticized his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made anti-Muslim comments about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that included a slew of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a rather grubby conclusion to an election that could be key to the path that the party, floundering in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be compelled to address a message that has resonated with Americans' anger at economic disparity, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least a portion of the candidate's ambitious ideas about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the party perhaps not seen since the Vermont senator ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, should Cuomo, who had been predicted to win easily in the June primary, complete a remarkable comeback victory, it could reinforce the party's current model of cautious, lackluster resistance – a strategy that has infuriated grassroots members. A New York defeat of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince party leaders that the best plan is to stick to the center – even as polls show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of New York seem to prefer the Mamdani vision. Surveys show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident during the race. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for the city and his willingness to actually venture out and connect with voters in the city has drawn an army of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might stick, Cuomo has concentrated on targeting Mamdani directly. He has called his rival, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and popped up on conservative media for an interview with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed the city “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to do the same to New York, has said about the progressive, and maybe that is expected. A group of wealthy residents, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have urged the Republican candidate to withdraw from the contest.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his wealthy backers, are worried, it should not have reached to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 New York state assembly members, started his campaign for mayor in last year, few had heard of him, and in reality, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had wed a political dynasty member and worked in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to increase police presence.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after video surfaced suggesting him implying the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your throat, it’s been influenced by the IDF,” the candidate said in the clip, filmed at a DSA gathering in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in Gaza, indicated he was questioning cooperative programs between the city police and Israeli forces.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate appears to have won empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to the independent's 9/11 remarks in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a lesson, he said, that many local Muslims had been told “again and again”: “That safety could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Speaking to the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd